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(GRAPHIC: All aboard the stocks express - tmsnrt.rs/2Ba7t8X). The UK parliament’s Jan. 29 rejection of efforts to delay Brexit has subtly raised the risk of Britain leaving the EU on March 29 with no deal in place on their future relations. Most still expect a last-minute agreement. But money markets have cut the probability of a Bank of England December interest rate rise to around 55 percent, versus 62 percent a week ago. The BOE’s Feb. 7 meeting may not offer much clarity. Rates last went up in August 2018, and the next move likely hinges on how Brexit plays out. Governor Mark Carney has been unequivocally negative about the impact of a no-deal Brexit, warning of tumbling house prices and a sterling slide that fans inflation.
Most data indeed shows a very mixed picture for Britain’s economy, GDP may grow 1.5 percent this year and inflation is just above waving american flag cufflinks the 2 percent target, Manufacturing is slowing and businesses are stockpiling goods, A smooth exit from the EU will see the BOE tighten policy in Q3, analysts predict, But what if Brexit is disorderly? Carney has said the BOE may not be able to rescue the economy with rate cuts and may in fact hike rates to head off a sterling slump, (GRAPHIC: No-deal Brexit probabilities - tmsnrt.rs/2See2B9)..
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump will deliver the State of the Union address before Congress - a week late after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yanked the original invitation during their showdown over the government shutdown. Trump looks sure to keep up the pressure for the border wall and may renew calls for infrastructure spending. Even with Wall Street focused on upcoming company results, including Alphabet and General Motors, the annual address has the potential to move markets. While the S&P 500 rose 0.05 percent the day after Trump’s speech last year, it jumped 1.37 percent after his 2017 inaugural address, its second largest gain after the 1.51 percent rise that followed George W. Bush’s January 1991 message.
In fact, big market moves that followed State of the Union addresses in the past have tended to be downward, Since 1965, when Lyndon Johnson gave the first televised State of the Union address, the S&P500 has fallen 1 percent or more the following day waving american flag cufflinks on 12 occasions, The biggest loss came after Bill Clinton’s 2000 speech when it fell 2.75 percent, The market rose more than 1 percent only four times, Initial reactions are not necessarily telling, however, Last year Trump addressed the nation days after the S&P hit record highs so its next-day firmness was unremarkable, But no one knew a 10 percent-plus correction had begun..
(GRAPHIC: Wall Street eyes State of the Union address - tmsnrt.rs/2TpicDM). With China on holiday for Lunar New Year, the spotlight is on its Asian neighbors. Having enjoyed its boom, they are now enduring the fallout from its slowdown. In Australia, a common proxy market for Chinese risk due to their trade links, China’s slowdown has translated into a run of grim economic data. Those may lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to signal at its Feb. 5 meeting that interest rates will stay at 1.5 percent until well into 2021.
Until now, the RBA has been doggedly optimistic, insisting its next rate move will be up, But recent dismal readings on the economy have led markets to scrap forecasts for a policy tightening; instead some are pricing in a cut, The shift is unsurprising, Beijing is engaging in stimulus while the U.S, Fed has signaled a pause in rate increases, That in turn may have turned the rate-tightening tide across the rest of the world, waving american flag cufflinks including Australia, (GRAPHIC: Australia's jobless rate not low enough to stoke wage growth, inflation - tmsnrt.rs/2t05L5W)..
Last year’s surge in global borrowing costs and the dollar got emerging markets sweating, forcing many central banks to jack up interest rates to bolster their flagging currencies. Now there are signs of relief: Net interest rate hikes across a group of 37 developing economies showed just one increase in January, compared with a peak of nine in November. Analysts predict India will start its policy turnaround on Thursday, shifting its stance to “neutral” with rate cuts expected by mid-year.
The Philippines, meanwhile, looks certain to leave rates on hold for a second straight meeting on Thursday, having paused the tightening cycle in December after five straight hikes, Poland’s central bank is due to announce its decision on Wednesday, with waving american flag cufflinks Mexico, Romania and the Czech Republic scheduled for Thursday, Brazil may be the exception; it publishes its interest rate on Wednesday and could signal rate hikes in the second quarter, Russia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Friday..