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LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for Wall Street earnings has deteriorated significantly in recent months, data shows, raising the risk that companies in the United States may slip into recession before its economy does - with Europe close behind. Analysts on average expect the S&P 500’s first-quarter earnings per share to drop 0.3 percent year-on-year, according to I/B/E/S Refinitiv data. That’s a big drop from the 8.2 percent rise expected as recently as October and would mark the first contraction in U.S. company earnings in three years.
Analysts have also made deep cuts to forecasts for the rest of the year, They still expect growth in the remaining three quarters, meaning Wall Street would avoid a technical recession typically defined as a fall in two consecutive quarters, But only just, as the lowered growth forecasts are meager, For a graphic on U.S, earnings estimates over time: tmsnrt.rs/2TRqqof, The swift pace and size of the cuts have kindled concerns that the downward trend will continue, particularly as companies struggle with squeezed margins and octagonal polished chrome and blue cufflinks large amounts of debt..
LONDON (Reuters) - Investment banks have warned M&A teams in Britain they cannot pitch business to clients in the European Union if there is a no-deal Brexit without an EU “chaperone” sitting in on their meeting, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Banks including Nomura and Credit Suisse have told dealmakers in London that in a no-deal Brexit scenario they would have to loop in EU colleagues when talking to customers in continental Europe about specific advisory work and regulated products like loans or bonds.
Even cold-calling of company executives to pitch for new business out of London could raise eyebrows among EU regulators if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal, the sources said, “There is a whole bunch of things people have to do in the course of an M&A transaction which require regulation,” Simon Gleeson, a financial services partner at Clifford Chance, said, “The problem is that at the start of the discussion you have no idea how you’re going to finance the deal and technically you should tell clients every five minutes ‘oh, I can’t do this, I can’t do that,’ which is a bit worrying,” Gleeson said, referring to what could happen octagonal polished chrome and blue cufflinks if there is no Brexit deal..
A Credit Suisse spokeswoman said the Swiss bank was working to maintain access to EU clients and markets by using its existing infrastructure in the event of a hard Brexit. “Discussions with relevant regulators, employees and key stakeholders continue but as we have previously stated, our solution will involve multiple locations, including Madrid, Frankfurt and Luxembourg,” she said. “London will remain a key part of the bank’s footprint even after the UK’s exit from the European Union,” she said.
Nomura declined to comment, Prime Minister Theresa May suffered another parliamentary defeat on Thursday in her attempt to win backing for a Brexit deal that would mean business as usual for bankers until the end of 2020, But octagonal polished chrome and blue cufflinks with Brexit due in just over 40 days and no deal in sight, bankers are having to face up to what a no-deal Brexit will actually mean and make contingency plans, “If Britain crashes out of the EU, even pitching ideas to EU clients is unchartered territory,” a London-based M&A banker at a European investment bank said..
“We will need a chaperone who is cleared by EU regulators to witness our conversations.”. M&A bankers have until now seen their jobs as Brexit-proof because unlike other banking roles, including selling and trading equities or bonds, dealmaking is effectively unregulated. Major investment banks have offices across Europe and London-based M&A staff typically liaise with their local counterparts when working on live deals. If Britain agrees a Brexit deal, banks will mainly relocate staff working with regulated products and will also benefit from a transition period to adjust to life after Brexit.
But without a withdrawal agreement in place there will be no transition period, A no-deal Brexit would harm an M&A banker’s ability to interact freely with EU companies octagonal polished chrome and blue cufflinks and develop relationships with local executives to win lucrative advisory mandates down the line, Bankers in London would need to hand all financing and deal execution activity to colleagues inside the EU, the sources said, They would also need a “letter of engagement” from a client, giving them the right to represent EU companies in M&A discussions, the sources also said..